So, what information do I need to enter?

To use traCOV, you need to enter your gender, age, country and select any pre-existing medical condition(s) you might have from the checkbox.

What does it mean by “risk”?

For the purpose of this tool, risk has been defined as  the proportion of infected people who share one or more of the characteristics of the user out of the population of all people who share these characteristics. However, the word "risk" has been use subjectively - it provides an indication of vulnerability the person has with respect to COVID in their country.

It shows “high risk”, should I be concerned?

As stated previously, risk is not the probability that the user will contract COVID - it is an informational number that we use to calculate the user's level of vulnerability based on his or her characteristics. Therefore, don't panic and follow local and country-wide guidelines.

From where do you get the database?

All codes in this product were written using the Wolfram Language. In addition to this, the database is obtained from the Wolfram data repository, which provides in-depth, most recently updated COVID-19 patient data.

Why do I see two components of risk (due to country, and due to age + gender)?

The calculation of risk here has two dimensions- by the virtue of your geographic location, and by the virtue of your age and gender. Then these two fractions are added, and the final risk factor is calculated. As this is our first working version, we feel that this logic schema works. In future versions, it will be further refined.

What does the world map plot on the results mean?

The plot in the results shows the number of global cases of your age range and gender. So, it’s supposed to give a sense of how prevalent the infection cases are, given certain demographics.

So, how exactly does the code work?

First, a risk is calculated based solely on your location. This is done by calculating the most recent case count for your country from the Wolfram dataset, and dividing this case count by the population of your country, also based on Wolfram data.

 

The second component of risk level is based on age range and gender. The number of cases is retrieved from Wolfram data for people of your gender and in your age range in tens, from 0-10 all the way to 90-99. This number is divided by the number of people around the world in your age range and of your gender, which is collected from the United Nations.

 

The two risk levels, risk due to country and risk due to age range and gender, are both multiplied by 100 for simplicity and are then summed to generate a final risk. We set threshold numbers to determine what should define low, moderate, high, and very high risks based on the risk outputs for many locations, genders, and ages.

You can view the full code here.

Sample results

traCOV

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